Understanding the Climate Change and Land Use Impact on Streamflow in the Present and Future under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios for the Parvara Mula Basin, India

Understanding the likely impacts of climate change (CC) and Land Use Cover (LULC) on water resources (WR) is critical for a basin’s mitigation. The present study intends to quantify impact streamflow (SF) Parvara Mula Basin (PMB) using SWAT. SWAT model was calibrated validated Calibration Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP) two time periods (2003–2007 2013–2016) (2008–2010 2017–2018), respectively. To evaluate model’s performance, statistical matrices such as R2, NSE, PBIAS, RSR were computed both periods. For these periods, results found be very good. In this study, three bias-corrected CMIP6 GCMs (ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5) under scenarios (ssp245, ssp370, ssp585) have been adopted by assuming no in existing LULC (2018). obtained from simulation at end century show that there will an increase 44.75% 53.72%, 45.80% 77.31%, 48.51% 83.12% according ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, A mean ensemble created determine net different future projections. ensembled also reveal SF near (2020–2040), mid (2041–2070), far (2071–2100) 64.19%, 47.33%, 70.59%, Finally, based results, it concluded CanESM5 produces better than ACCESS-CM2 BCC-CSM2-MR models. As result, evaluated with can used PMB’s management strategies. Thus, study’s findings may helpful developing strategies preventing pessimistic effect CC PMB.